As the name of my blog
suggests a company's dividend policy is the backbone to a lot of my investments
(there are others which have no bearing on the dividend policy at all and some
where the dividend policy is only a minor consideration).
As the well
known saying goes "Actions speak louder than words." I mean anyone can say we're
going to increase this by this amount and so on (should they not however then
the shareholders wouldn't be impressed but it is possible that they could have
such a short term outlook to keep the share price buoyant).
I find the
best way identify to a company's intentions with regard to their dividend policy
is to look at their dividend history and what dividends they have paid over the
years. Now you can go back as far as you like but I find 6 years is plenty and
gives a sufficient guide as to what they intend to pay in the future with
regards dividends. It is worth noting here that the actual share price has no
bearing on this exercise I'm just looking at the average dividend
growth.
One of the powerhouses of dividend growth shares is British
American Tobacco so I shall use this as an
example.
Dividend Dividend Increase
2006 55.9p
2007 66.2p 18.43%
2008 83.7p 26.44%
2009 99.5p 18.88%
2010 114.2p 14.77%
2011 126.5p 10.77%
2012 134.9p 6.64%
Clearly
when identifying the dividend policy of a company the continued annual dividend
increase is vital, any decrease in dividend over the 6 year period must be
looked at and lead to the likely discarding of the share.
Above however
you can see that British American Tobacco's dividend history shows that British
American Tobacco's dividend policy is firmly one of dividend growth and strong
dividend growth at that. Whilst there is a fluctuation over the years the
average comes out at a strong 15.99%.
So following this calculation the
higher this 6 year dividend growth average figure the better obviously but a
single annual decrease in the dividend should be looked at closely as this
demonstrates the company doesn't have such a strong dividend policy.
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